Forecasting Adjustment

The forecasting adjustment provides judgmental forecasts on Hong Kong tourism by taking advantage of the judgemental ability of a panel of experts to incorporate additional information and to detect changes which may take place in the future.

Although statistical methods may produce acceptable forecasts on the basis of historical data, special or unpredictable events, such as "Rugby World Cup Sevens" and "Olympic Equestrian events", may, inevitably render statistical forecasts on tourism demand, inappropriate. In this case, the forecasting results could be adjusted through judgmental methods to increase the accuracy of forecasts.